The simple version
- A market is a question with two sides. “Will bitcoin close above $100,000 on Dec 31?” You can hold Yes shares or No shares.
- A Yes and a No together are always worth 1. Like two halves of a cinema ticket: whoever holds the half for the side that happens gets the whole 1 at the end.
- The price is what people are paying. If Yes trades at 62¢, the crowd is roughly saying “62 in 100”. It’s a price, not a promise.
- Markets open only once they’re backed. Like a group order that only goes ahead when enough people join: backers lock money on both sides first. If not enough join in time, everyone gets their money back.
- Results come with evidence, and can be challenged. After close, a resolver proposes the answer with a document and a bond. Anyone who disagrees can challenge with their own bond, and an arbitrator decides. If nobody resolves it in time, it pays out as Invalid: 0.5 per share to everyone.
- If you’re right, you get 1 per share. Claim it whenever you like. Claims don’t expire.